Broken Trust: Can Pakistan Salvage US-Iran Diplomacy?

Pakistan’s role as mediator in the ongoing US-Iran conflict has been a familiar one for months, but its efforts have yielded little more than temporary ceasefires and broken agreements. The latest round of fighting, which saw the United States launch airstrikes on Iran and Iranian forces retaliate with missiles and drones, raises questions about Islamabad’s ability to bring Washington and Tehran back to the negotiating table.

The breakdown in trust between the two nations has been exacerbated by repeated failures in negotiations. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) in June aimed at creating a pathway towards long-term peace. However, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei warned that Tehran would continue responding to what it sees as US non-compliance with the agreement.

The conflict’s cyclical nature is striking. The breakdown of the first round of talks led to a naval blockade on Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz, while the collapse of the MoU signed in June saw Iran attack several ships passing through the waterway without permission. This pattern of escalation and de-escalation has been repeated ad nauseam, with each side accusing the other of non-compliance.

Analysts point to fundamental issues driving this cycle: control of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic asset for Iran; and the US desire to degrade Iranian military capabilities. Javad Heiran-Nia, director of the Persian Gulf Studies Group at the Center for Scientific Research and Middle East Strategic Studies in Tehran, notes that mediators like Pakistan lack the instruments to resolve the dispute unless there’s a shift in the balance of power between Iran and the United States.

Pakistan’s strategy is unclear. Can it continue to serve as a mediator when its efforts have thus far been unsuccessful? Or should Islamabad be more proactive in using its influence to push for a resolution? The answers are unclear, but what is certain is that Pakistan’s diplomatic outreach has not yet yielded results.

The conflict has pulled Qatar directly into the fray. On Sunday, Iranian missiles and drones hit the Gulf state, injuring several people, including a child. This development has significant implications for regional stability and raises questions about the effectiveness of Pakistan’s mediation efforts in containing the conflict.

Regional actors like Saudi Arabia have been quietly building their military capabilities in recent years. Will Riyadh use its newfound influence to push for a resolution? Or will it continue to maintain its stance as a cautious observer?

The outcome is far from certain, but one thing is clear: Pakistan’s efforts to salvage US-Iran diplomacy have thus far fallen short. Islamabad needs to break the cycle of escalation and de-escalation or risk perpetuating regional instability.

Pakistan’s diplomatic outreach has been characterized by phone calls, video conferences, and shuttle diplomacy. However, what is missing from Islamabad’s toolkit is a willingness to use its influence more effectively. It needs to push harder on Washington and Tehran to find common ground rather than simply serving as a go-between.

The stakes are high, and the consequences of failure are dire. As tensions continue to rise, it’s time for Pakistan to think outside the box and explore new avenues for resolving the conflict. The current approach has yielded little more than temporary ceasefires and broken agreements; it’s time for Islamabad to take a bolder stance.

Bold action will require courage from all parties involved – not just Pakistan, but also its negotiating partners in Washington and Tehran. It’s time for them to put aside their differences and work towards a lasting resolution rather than simply trying to manage the conflict through temporary agreements.