Southeast Asia Supports Multilateralism, Wary of US or China Leadership: Survey

A new survey conducted by The Rockefeller Foundation has shed light on the complex attitudes of Southeast Asian nations towards global cooperation and leadership. The findings reveal a region that is confident in international collaboration yet wary of being dominated by either the United States or China.

Southeast Asia remains one of the most enthusiastic proponents of multilateralism, with 63% of respondents believing that global cooperation is working effectively. This figure stands out from other regions, including the US and Canada (37%), Oceania (32%), and Western Europe (31%). The Philippines, Indonesia, and Singapore – the countries surveyed as part of Southeast Asia’s grouping – all contributed to this positive assessment.

However, beneath this façade of confidence lies a more nuanced reality. Analysts point out that Southeast Asian nations have long maintained a policy of strategic ambiguity, carefully balancing their relationships with major powers to maintain flexibility in an increasingly uncertain world. This approach is particularly evident among smaller and middle powers, which are sensitive to the implications of being dominated by either Washington or Beijing.

The survey’s findings suggest that this ambivalence towards great power leadership extends beyond mere ideological convictions. Instead, it reflects a pragmatic calculation that recognizes the risks associated with aligning too closely with one superpower or the other. By maintaining a distance between themselves and the major powers, Southeast Asian nations can protect their sovereignty, ensure access to markets, and navigate international relations without being tied down by unwieldy obligations.

The region’s strong commitment to multilateralism could provide a buffer against the effects of trade wars and other forms of competition between major powers. This is particularly relevant for ASEAN’s economic integration efforts, including the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Free Trade Area. These initiatives may not be as vulnerable to great power rivalries as previously thought.

However, Southeast Asia is not immune to the challenges posed by great power rivalry. The survey’s findings highlight the need for greater regional cooperation and coordination in the face of an increasingly uncertain global environment. As tensions between the US and China escalate, it is likely that Southeast Asian nations will find themselves caught in the middle, forced to navigate a delicate balance between their relationships with major powers.

The growing competition between the US and China for influence in the region will be a key area to watch. Will ASEAN’s economic integration efforts serve as a counterbalance to great power rivalry, or will they become increasingly dependent on the whims of external actors? The survey’s findings offer valuable insights into the region’s strategic preferences.

Ultimately, it is up to Southeast Asia’s leaders to translate these sentiments into tangible policy actions. The future of global governance and regional cooperation hangs in the balance. As the great powers continue to jockey for position, Southeast Asia’s ambivalence towards leadership will remain a key factor shaping international relations.