Trump’s Soft Spot for Xi: A Pattern of Accommodation

President Donald Trump’s decision to host Chinese President Xi Jinping at a state dinner raises questions about his administration’s policy towards China. Gone are the days of fiery rhetoric and trade wars; instead, we see a president willing to give Xi a pass on issues like China’s alleged support for Iran.

This shift in approach is not just a departure from Trump’s campaign promises but also a stark contrast to the tough talk of earlier years. During his presidential campaign, Trump called out China as a menace to the US economy, accusing it of gutting American factories and eroding the middle class. Today, however, he speaks glowingly about Xi, praising their “very good relationship” and describing him as a “great gentleman.”

The reality is more complex than simply recognizing China’s growing economic power and influence on global affairs. Trump’s approach to China can be seen as a calculated gamble, reflecting his leadership style: unpredictable, mercurial, and willing to take risks. In 2020, Trump’s initial attempt to use high tariffs and export restrictions to pressure China backfired spectacularly.

Since then, Trump has shifted gears, opting for a more conciliatory approach that prioritizes building relationships over confronting China head-on. This has led to some symbolic wins, such as reciprocal state visits and a decline in trade imbalance with China – though this is largely due to China’s clever use of workarounds.

However, this accommodationist approach has created a vacuum that other Western leaders are eager to fill. Xi is using “wedge tactics” to drive a wedge between the US and its allies, making it easier for China to present itself as the more stable and responsible power. As Michael Kovrig, a senior adviser at the International Crisis Group, noted, this approach has significant implications for global politics.

The question on everyone’s mind now is: what will Thursday’s visit bring? Will we see any real policy “deliverables,” or will this be just another symbolic gesture? It’s unclear, but one thing is certain: Trump’s soft spot for Xi has significant implications for US foreign policy and the global economy. As we watch this drama unfold, it’s worth remembering that the stakes are high – and the consequences of failure could be far-reaching indeed.

While Trump’s accommodationist approach to China may seem like a pragmatic recognition of Beijing’s growing influence, it also raises questions about the effectiveness of his policy. China has continued to expand its manufacturing sector, even as US tariffs have failed to curb its exports. Moreover, Beijing has found new markets and boxed out competition from other industrialized countries – a testament to its agility and willingness to adapt.

The development of AI is emerging as a wild card that could tip the balance of power in favor of either side. Trump’s enthusiasm for developing AI in America may be misplaced, given the risks associated with data centers and recent safety warnings from leading companies.

As Xi continues to build up China’s military and AI capabilities, the US must confront the reality of its own limitations – and the implications of its policy failures. The vacuum created by Trump’s policies has left other Western leaders eager to fill it, which could have far-reaching consequences for global politics and the economy.