The Economic War Strategy: A Deliberate Gamble on Iranian Suffering

The latest round of U.S. sanctions against Iran has been implemented, and its impact will be felt by ordinary Iranians in a way that is both deliberate and devastating. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s declaration of an “economic D-Day” against Iran marks a significant escalation in the campaign to strangle the regime through financial pressure.

The goal of these measures is not merely to strangle the regime, but also to inflict collective punishment on the Iranian people, who are already struggling to cope with their country’s economic crisis. The Treasury Department has targeted Iran’s “vital lifelines,” including digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping, in an effort to cripple the ability of ordinary Iranians to survive.

Make no mistake: this is not a strategy aimed at targeting the regime’s illicit financing networks or disrupting its nefarious activities. Rather, it seeks to make life miserable for the Iranian people, who are already struggling to survive in an economy ravaged by decades of mismanagement and corruption. The Treasury Department claims that these measures will starve the regime of revenue, but this rings hollow when one considers the devastating impact on average Iranian families.

Digital assets and gold are essential tools for ordinary Iranians to protect their savings from inflation, not just means for the regime to skirt Western sanctions. Technology keeps families connected with loved ones abroad and provides a lifeline for businesses struggling to survive in a hyper-inflated economy. Aviation and shipping are crucial for importing food, medicine, and other essential goods.

The sanctions have been implemented at a particularly opportune moment – or perhaps “inopportune” is the better word. The Iranian economy was already on its knees before the conflict with the US escalated, with inflation soaring above 80% and prices for basic food staples skyrocketing by as much as 100%. The currency has lost another 30% of its value this year alone, triggering a fresh wave of protests across the country.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that Iran’s economy will contract by 6.1% this year – the worst performance in decades. A staggering 1 million jobs have been lost since late May, leaving millions of Iranians without a means to support themselves or their families. The government is reluctant to raise prices or implement austerity measures for fear of sparking further unrest.

As the economic situation spirals out of control, some moderate officials are beginning to sound the alarm – though it may be too little, too late. Parliamentary speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has acknowledged that time is running out to address the country’s economic woes before it’s too late. “No matter how strong we are militarily,” he warned, “if the people are hungry and we do not have financial circulation, economic growth, and domestic production, we will not endure.”

Protests have already begun – though they’re a far cry from the massive demonstrations seen in January, when the government’s brutal crackdown left thousands dead. Oil and gas workers have taken to the streets in Asaluyeh, while laid-off workers protested at the Shadegan steel complex in western Iran. Teachers union members are also speaking out about their unpaid salaries.

But will it be enough? Experts warn that the regime is unlikely to be swayed by the suffering of ordinary citizens – and may even see it as a necessary evil to maintain its grip on power. The Treasury Department’s strategy seems to assume that economic hardship will eventually break the regime’s will, but history suggests otherwise: authoritarian regimes have consistently demonstrated their ability to withstand economic pressure in order to cling to power.

As the US continues down this perilous path, it’s worth considering what this means for the region – and indeed, for global stability. The proxy war between the US and Iran is already having far-reaching consequences, from Saudi Arabia to Lebanon. Can we afford to push the Iranian people further into poverty and desperation? What will be the long-term cost of this strategy, not just in human terms but also in geopolitical ones?

The stakes are higher than ever before, and the outcome of this economic D-Day remains uncertain – though one thing is clear: the consequences of this strategy will be far-reaching.